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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.