From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”