Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
