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Breaking into the planet's most popular museum in the middle of the day, grabbing eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, carried out for global fame and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who observe trends in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a series of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the material value of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last decade in Europe, the UK and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the thieves.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” said an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is more secure.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have strengthened their security in recent years, with armed guards on their locations and merchandise no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, in part because of the inherent reason of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and also the current economic climate in many western countries.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the world have reduced spending on law enforcement and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once owned by a royal that the thieves dropped by the street on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, carried out by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better comparisons may be the recent theft of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the theft of a £4.75m gold toilet from a UK landmark the that year, the 2017 heist of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as quickly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the thieves would find it hard to sell them. “It's impossible to trade something as immediately identifiable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, said an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the cultural authorities has published photos of the items. Even a individual buyer or an sales venue would want to see paperwork establishing legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as art thefts are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a plan to conceal it, maybe by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the danger of an partner informing authorities to cash in a reward.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the theft had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Modifying taken items by melting down or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary cutting techniques give stones a larger and brighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or re-cutting removes the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to places with gem knowledge like Israel, India or even as close as Antwerp, and locate an expert to cut out the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the museum, with a leaked official review expected to be published soon pointing out “considerable” and “persistent” slow progress in modernizing systems and observing that surveillance were lacking in many rooms. But security experts say displaying precious items in older structures with a steady stream of guests comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” said Erin Thompson. “Many of them have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for criminals to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for buildings should be designed “like a fortress”, said Peter Stürmann. “It should include multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Modern buildings are equipped with advanced external CCTV cameras or in-built vibration sensors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but historic institutions may be hesitant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to fit to decorated surfaces. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the day as hordes of visitors stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the Louvre raid, which took place between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when security rotate and prior to the museum is full of visitors who actually act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more quickly and effectively, but it has also given robbers new tools with which to bypass security measures. In the city, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in France about the 232-year-old building had primarily focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on protection.

The institution has an on-site brigade of about fifty full-time firefighters, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the artworks from fires and water damage. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all depends on government support and money, and currently the nation simply has no resources.”